MELTDOWN - THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WORLD OF WINE

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We're all made well aware every day that the climate is changing and a brief look at our own weather over the last couple of years will surely convince anyone that global warming is unavoidable. But what are the effects on a wine industry which is so reliant on the climate?

Climate change represents the change in long term weather patterns and as research progresses we're increasingly becoming aware of what a critical issue this is at an individual, national, international and global level. We know from history that changing climates are part of the Earth's natural cycle however current evidence is suggesting that the shifts in climate and the trend towards global warming is largely a direct result of human activities. The implications of these changes are profound, agriculture, and more specifically viticulture and the wine industry as a whole, is one area that is and will experience the full effects of these trends and future predictions.

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level" is the opening statement in a recent report produced by a Working group from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The report is comprehensive, highlighting direct evidence of increased air and sea temperatures and other unpredictable changes of climate including the shrinking of Arctic sea ice and frozen ground, changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation, rise of sea levels thus leading to salinity issues, increased risks of drought and heatwaves and more intense cyclone activity. The theory is backed up by reality as we see evidence of these changes all around us, the three warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998 we've witnessed lethal storms & and floods in Latin America & Asia, and even fatal heatwaves in Europe.

It is now undisputed that these changes have come about as a result of excessive build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which in turn contribute to the greenhouse effect. Some of these greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane occur naturally, others such as hidrofluorocarbons are man-made and used in fridges and aerosols. Human activity has seriously contributed to these naturally occurring greenhouse gases with actions such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation which has resulted in higher carbon dioxide levels for and certain agricultural activities such as the use of fertilizers leading to higher nitrous oxide concentrations. In short all the evidence is suggesting that it's our industry, transportation and agriculture that is the likely cause of this rapidly occurring global warming phenomenon.

Projections for climate change are difficult to forecast and vary according to greenhouse gas emissions but the IPCC predict that for the "next two decades a warming of about 0.2% per decade is projected for a range of SRES* emission scenarios". More long term predictions estimate at best a rise in mean temperature of 1.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 at worst a rise of 4 degrees Celsius, a more rapid increase than the changes over the last 10,000 years. These changes are, and will have, considerable impact on the world of viticulture as we know it and the wine industry as a whole.

Vineyard sites are carefully selected and managed in accordance with weather conditions and extreme weather incidents can damage or severely restrict crops, longer term changes could mean more fundamental concerns over production viability and threatens the future of the regional styles as we know them today. However, an initial glance may suggest that in some areas the rise in temperature has had positive effects, after all England is now enjoying consistently better ripening of their crops and no longer having to rely on chaptalisation to achieve required alcohol levels and English wines are beginning to enjoy international acclaim Moreover, a report released by Dr Gregory Jones looking at 27 wine regions showed that "overall, growing season temperatures have increased for most of the world's high quality wine regions over the last 50 years, by an average of 2 degrees Celsius. In tandem with this rise in temperatures, the quality of vintages has also improved over this period" If we take a look at Germany, a relatively marginal climate that historically has experienced considerable vintage variation, it has now enjoyed a run of almost ten years without a disastrous vintage. Whether these trends are due to global warming or advances in winemaking technology and knowledge or perhaps a mixture is difficult to pinpoint.

However, at the same time such changes will give rise to a more problematic set of issues. Firstly the gradual warming of our climate will upset the suitability of certain varieties to particular regions. For example, cooler climate varieties such as Pinot Noir are typically grown in cooler climates with long ripening periods, increases in temperature could push a region out of the correct climate for its chosen varietals. In areas that are already particularly warm this could be a real issue, for example the Hunter Valley or Rioja with it becoming too hot for quality wine production to be at all viable leading to potential shifts in viticultural regions.

This warmer than ideal climate will also affect the entire growing season and could mean that the grape will go through its phenological development at a much faster rate. This could have an impact at both a vineyard management and a grape quality level with issues like earlier budburst and earlier harvests in warmer conditions or increased carbon dioxide resulting in higher yields. This in turn will impact on grape quality, a study of the Australian wine industry by Leanne Webb showed that "overall, projected greenhouse gas induced climate change could have a potential negative impact for the Australian wine industry with grape quality estimated to decrease by 7 to 23% by 2030 and 12 to 57.2% by 2050." For these purposes quality was measured by gross returns. Fruit will have higher sugar content; therefore there is the matter of higher alcohol content and balancing this with acidity. Other effects could include reduced water availability, pest and disease pattern may change and not for the better and the future of coastal vineyards may well be under threat if sea levels continue to rise.

There are also other factors to consider beyond the parameters of the vineyard such as the transportation of wine, as temperature increases so might the need for refrigerated containers; this will bring with it increased costs. The environmental implications of freight and shipping may become a concern, for example Chilean wine could be seen as better for the environment due to wines being shipped, which is less polluting than for example Italian wines which require considerable road haulage. Consumer habits could shift, turning away from imported goods to more home grown produce. Insurance companies may raise the cost of premiums if the risk of freak weather events in certain areas increases.

If climate change does follow the anticipated course then there will have to be action from the wine industry and this should start today. It is critical that the industry as a whole works together at a global level right through from trade bodies to multinational drink companies to individual growers. Research is vital as is the raising of awareness. Meetings such as the First World Meeting on Global Warming and Wine, organised in Barcelona last year organised by the Wine Academy of Spain are vital in bringing this issue into the open and making it a reality.

At a viticultural level there is a need to plan ahead. The extent of planning will depend on where a region is today in terms of climate and the magnitude and rate of future warming. For example hotter regions that could become too hot to grow grapes could consider looking for cooler or higher sites in order to continue achieving the same styles. Xavier Sort from Miguel Torres points out that in Spain, "There may be a move of wineries into the Pyrenees in the future". Already some wine companies in Spain are purchasing land as elevation. This will have serious infrastructure and land issues; will new sites require new wineries? Or will grapes get transported to existing wineries thus increasing transportation serving only to increase pollution. As cool/warm regions start to heat up they could look at changing the grape varieties they focus on, if shiraz is well suited to the Barossa now will we see Coonawarra Shiraz in the future? Cooler regions could become the warmer regions of the future, wine regions such as New Zealand and Tasmania will be the least affected by global warming and the Northern hemisphere is set to warm much more than the Southern hemisphere, all these factors will come in to play when industry leaders are planning the future. Companies and growers may even consider creating new varieties that will withstand higher temperatures or the development of new training & irrigation systems. All this will inevitably incur serious investment, research, expertise and time.

However, these are very much reactionary measures, the idea that we will look to solve the problem once the damage has been done. It may be more prudent to focus attention on the proactive steps that could be taken now to limit the potential consequences. Increased responsibility at every level is important, right through from the decision makers sitting in boardrooms of large multinationals to the individual growers in the vineyard. It is imperative that we start implementing more environmentally conscious policies looking to protect our natural resources and the long term viability of agricultural land. Programmes such as the Sustainable Wine Growing programme launched and promoted by the Californian Wine Institute outline guidelines for a number of areas including ecosystem management, water & energy conservation and soil management. We see examples of companies such as Yalumba leading the way by joining the Australian Government's Greenhouse Challenge Plus Programme with its low emissions plans involving all aspects of wine production process including transportation, waste, recycling and land-use activities and the rise of biodynamic & organic viticulture, all of which don't necessarily represent an increase in costs rather a change in attitudes and practices.

Unfortunately the question of global warming is a gradual process that lacks the urgency that is often required for action to be taken. There is a real risk that the immediate nature of our society could push this issue lower down the list of priorities. The potential expense of relocation of vineyard sites, investment in technology and research may also make such actions prohibitive for many. What is essential is that the issue is carefully monitored by experts, that industry leaders work with governments, environmental and trade bodies to keep this issue at the forefront of everyone's agenda and urge all in the industry to promote and follow environmentally responsible practices before it's too late.